I said in the last post that this post would be a continuation of my thoughts on the Singularity. I've changed my mind for a few reasons:
The topic has humbled me. When I signed up to do a series of 23 daily posts called "Visualizing the Future" 11/11/11 , I had no idea what I was getting myself into.
I promised my wife not to stay up all night tonight. ;-)
I've been making these up as I go along.
I'm starting to appreciate just how interesting the Future is.
It's become clear to me that by definition, none of us has a clue what will happen in the Future, least of all me. It's why we talk, wonder, gamble, imagine and dream. It's what keeps life interesting and magical.
Let's begin today with a backwards glance. We're just over halfway through the 23 part series; so far we've covered quite bit of ground. Here's a quick graphic review:
Today's topic is a fun one, but before I start, here's BLATANT SCREAMING DISCLAIMER: (The title of today's post is intended to provoke thought and debate. I am well aware of the fact that this topic is often treated with starry-eyed breathlessness and a lack of scientific rigor. My intent is to simply to conduct a thought experiment, not to invite you to join the Borg)
First things first, let me explain what may otherwise feel like a jarring segue from Ponzi Schemes and the Financial System to a discussion of the internet as a brain. In developing this series, I've looked at how societies have developed, how technology has affected how we think about the future and the effect of these technical innovations on media and commerce. Once I reached yesterday's topic, I was surprised that how fuzzy the line was between a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme and the international financial system. I'm not yet sure where I come out with respect to the rage of the Occupy Wall Street Movement, but something generationally defining is happening and about a broken economic system with a message spreading at net speed.
At a fundamental level (jump in here economists), both Ponzi Schemes or Health Finanacial Markets only work insofar as participants trust in the system and have faith that debts will be honored. (I covered this in detail in "The Future of Money") . I remember in 2008 during the Financial Collapse watching the headlines in the WSJ grow daily to larger and larger typeface. Running a startup at the time, each days headline made me queasier and queasier so I wrote a short piece for AdAge called "In Shaky Times, Relax". Looking back on it 3 years later, it seems both naively hopeful and creepily accurate:
"Financial institutions are repositories of trust, which they accumulate, hold and invest in the form of investors and depositors' money. As soon as the trust placed in them erodes, the funds quickly follow. The phenomenon we're witnessing right now is the result panic-amplifying feedback loops that happen in our highly networked world.This is the the societal equivalent of a healthy person who knows he will drop dead if his heart rate exceeds 160 beats per minute. Everything is good unless he starts thinking about it. And his heart-rate rises. Which worries him. And his heart rate rises and rises and then . . .pow.. . . . .The reality is that nobody will escape unscathed because we are all so fundamentally interconnected. "
No discussion of the web's evolution towards sentience would be complete without Kevin Kelly's epic talk at the 2007 TED Conference entitled "The Next 5000 Days of the Internet". In it he masterfully chronicles the first 15 years of the web and compares it's quantitative elements to the circuitry and memory of a brain. I recommend watching the whole thing, but for me the pull quote comes 5 minutes in - despite it's immensity, the Internet (in 2007) was roughly the size of 1 human brain.
Tonight's post involves some sleight of hand. If you've ever watch a shell game or 3 card monty, you know that being told you're going to be tricked doesn't help at all. You're still the shill and you always pick the wrong shell.
So I'll explain the trick quickly. Tonight, I will give you a brief introduction to the topic and hopefully, arouse your curiosity. The rest of the trick will wait until tomorrow. Here goes.
Whether it's a roll of the dice, flip of a coin or an ace on the river, the concept of "Chance" is more central to the "Future" than any other. In Greek mythology, Zeus, Hades and Poseidon divided the Universe with a roll of the dice. Religions focus on the role an individual plays in determining his fate; so much so that the word "divine" can either refer to holiness or an ability to predict the future. In some ways, you could argue that chance, whether referred to in literate as Fate or Luck or in philosopy as Free Will or Determinism, is THE central concern of modern society. And why not? What could be more important or as interesting as understanding what will happen next?
I've touched on a breadth of large subjects in this series but none of them has proven to be as large, difficult or interesting as Chance. For this reason, I've decided that it deserves more than a single post. How many, I don't quite know -- if you have yet realized, I have only a vague roadmap on this trip and when I reach areas requiring more time than my midnight oil will afford, I might as well just extend them. So strap in for an extended, potentially meandering journey. I've also figured out that these posts are more fun to write when they stem from personal stories. I hope the same is true for you, the readers .
In 2003, I had recently moved from New York to California and gotten married. My business partners were back East and after a few months of trying to make a startup work remotely I received a stern talking to from my wife. I needed a job. My network in San Francisco was fairly lean and as I began to look around, my sister-in-law mentioned that she had a friend who needed someone to build a website for his project. She put me in touch with her former colleague, Andrew Pascal who had recently been lured back to Las Vegas to help his uncle launch an ambitious new casino on Las Vegas Boulevard. His uncle's name was Steve Wynn.
I've puzzled today over various ways to begin this journey and chosen to use the metaphor of the stage. Let me explain with a story.
In late 2002 I moved from New York to California and proposed to my wife-to-be. After we got married, I spent a year flying back and forth to Las Vegas where I consulted to Casino baron Steve Wynn (more on this later). My son was born and we decided to stay in San Francisco. Hilary went back to work and I took care of Theo. I needed to get a job but wasn't sure what would be interesting and exciting. Then I heard about a tiny company who had made a virtual world where the users could create whatever they wished. It had an economy, land barons and politics. I remember walking Theo in his stroller past the offices and thinking, "I don't know how I'm going to do it, but I'm going to be part of this". I managed to get an interview with their CEO; we hit it off and he gave me a job. The CEO's name was Philip Rosedale and the company was Second Life.
The first website I ever was addicted to was eBay. It was 1999 and I had used the site to buy things in the past, but never to sell. As soon as I began selling, everything changed. I found myself returning over and over, sometimes as many as 40 times a day to check my auctions to see who was bidding and what the prices were. I couldn't stop. I soon began the thinking of this like a lobster fisherman; the auctions were my traps and coming to check on them was irresistible.
What eBay did for merchants, top web services are now doing for users. In simpler terms, I may be "interested" in watching my Twitter stream but I'm MUCH more interested in seeing which of my tweets have gotten @replies or Retweets. These are my lobsters. I'm addicted to them.
I thought it might be interesting to list the elements that make a site a lobster pot and therefore addictive:
Low threshold interaction with other users' info (I become their lobster)
Explicit metrics that show what's happened since my last visit.
Tie these metrics to social standing, privileges etc.
None of this is really new, but I find it interesting to compare with former Amazon Chief Scientist Andreas Weigend's take on how to create interactive addiction ( courtesy of Christina Allen )
Give users a stake (i.e., points, social curiosity, money, game status, etc.)
Then, mess with that stake (i.e., expiring points, competitive points, earn more money, see who has ""partnered"" with whom, who has made a friend, who has a new photo, which RL friends are already in world and what they are doing...)"
Then watch users come back to track and improve that stake
I'm going to keep thinking about this. In the meantime, do you have any examples of good lobster pot sites? I'll be checking my comments addictively, of course. . . .
