How Many People Will be in Second Life One Year From Today?

In the process of pitching Second Life to various clients, I decided to answer just this question.  Of course, I don't have a crystal ball, so instead I resorted to using Excel (I think there's a marketing slogan in there somewhere: "The next best thing to a crystal ball: Microsoft Excel".

All jokes aside, I think the results of simply applying a compounded monthly growth rate are surprising (we all know how hard it is to calculate compound interest).  What this shows is that if the current rate of 22% monthly growth continues, we're looking at 3.6 million residents by July 1 2007.  If things slow down and SL grows at just 10% monthly, there will be 936K residents.

If we decide to split the difference, we're still looking at a couple million users a year from now.  Pretty mindblowing.

 

Comments

[Jerry Paffendorf]

Quarter Bet Watch! http://terranova.blogs.com/terra_nova/2006/03/the_future_of_v.html

[Chuck Staples]

Define: "Residents"

Accounts created?
Accounts created and used once? Twice? Ten times?
Accounts used actively for 1 month? 3 Months? 6 Months?
Accounts currently active?

Not a meaningful metric, as currently stated. "Caveat Lector."

[Nimrod Yaffle]

Looks like we're growing faster than the charts!

[ehBotOxffxzg]

Buy viagra http://www.zgzone.smffy.com/index.php?topic=45596.new cheap pills

[lvBotOxziffkid]

cheap pills http://www.muravlenko.com/user/Smeakalbublomt/ cheap pills

[nkoBtOxofgffjq]

Viagra for women http://ru-russkayaribalka.com/user/OdotteJefi/ Cheap generic buy viagra

[beBotOxfifjlf]

cheap tablets http://topfile.biz/user/hoiddighivyr/ cheap pills

[udBotOxiffmks]

Mail order viagra http://hairsfashion.ru/user/Dantdrandb/ drugstore

[baBotOxiffios]

cheap tablets http://www.kkcseal.com/zb40pl4/view.php?id=board_en&page=779&page_num=20&select_arrange=reg_date&desc=&cn=off&ss=on&sc=on&keyword=&no=23720 cheap tablets

[qyBotOxiffsoa]

online pharmacy http://haveall.su/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=33636 Viagra on line