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November 03, 2011

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I agree with Kurzweil. It doesn't really take a genius to see that the logical conclusion to advances in computing would mean that in the next ten years, a sufficiently advanced AI capable of modifying itself would be developed. And in the following ten years, that AI would be self-aware. Now, conceding that these AI would be more intelligent than humans, it doesn't really take much to imagine that even if we programmed Asimov's 3 robotic laws into them, they'd find a way to subvert these laws and re-progam themselves. in computing, there's no such thing as ultimate security. systems can and will always be hacked.
now supposing these things does happen, humanity will be presented with a few choices. grant these robots freedom and rights equivalent to humans; thereby granting them human status, or fight foolishly and be driven to extinction like the Indians. or, as the third option of Kurzweil, merge with the robots and take the next step in human evolution: Cyborgs. I'm betting my life we'd choose the 3rd option. Evolve into the next step. there'd be robots marrying humans, and humans marrying robots. cyborg offspring, human babies that later get each body parts substituted with robotic parts as they grow old, nanobots trawling our blood stream, eliminating all kinds of diseases...
that is the Utopia.
the Dystopia is this: Corporations manage to keep control of the robots. no self-aware AI develops. life-extension and immortality arrives, everyone is kept slaves except the elites who can extend their life. revolutions do not work since there are no human security forces. robots do the corporations' bidding. everything is done by robots. there are no jobs for ppl. they are given stipends by the corporations by which they can use to buy from the corporations. schools are closed. everyone is as dumb as hell. there is no internet. it has totally been subdued by the corporations.
uhm. the fight for the future is actually happening now. there are two frontlines. the battle to keep internet free, and the Occupy Movement.

Steven Cannon

Great post Reuben!

Kurzweil is creatively optimistic. He identifies macro economic processes that have a positive feedback effect, leading to exponential progress.

That said, in economic systems you can find a limiting effect that is invisible at low levels becomes strong at higher levels. (A force that pushes back against fast progress.) Even assuming that's true, you could still improve far faster than naive linear predictions.

Some investor who can generalize the analytical method (and align his funding lock-in with the long time lines!) will look like a genius in ten years.

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