Visualizing the Future #4 : The Present - "Houston, We Have a Problem"

Bad news can be expressed as facts or feelings.  Our current predicament has lots of both.  The Times or WSJ can give you all you need; for the truly masochistic I recommend either Dmitriy Orlov or James Howard Kunsler (the latter is vastly more amusing).  Today let's do a quick inventory - getting your bearings is critical or its easy to panic and sail straight back into the eye of the storm.

A picture says a thousand words.  But in this case, it can be reduced to 4 words - " 7 Billion and growing" . "How fast and at what cost?" are the questions.   To the extent the UN is good at projecting these things, the guesses range from a low of 5.5 Billion by 2050 to a high of 14 Billion.  If this vast range raises an eyebrow, it should.  First of all, how do they calculate this?  Secondly, the assumptions that factor into the figures are interesting.  Does 5.5 Billion assume war, disease or slowed reproduction?  Does 14 Billion involve undersea colonies and cold fusion? This is the kind of scenario modelling navel-gazing that really leaves me cold.



Going into tomorrow's post (tentatively titled "Idiocracy is for Idiots" - it's time for some levity in this series), here's what IS interesting.  I'd call it "Clash of the Pyramids".  These pyramids are hurtling towards eachother and primed for a collision of epic proportions.  The graphic below is my best attempt to represent them .  

The image on the left is Maslow's Hierachy of Need - the concept most college freshman pick up in social psychology which states that our decisions are driven by satisfying basic needs first - food, shelter etc.  If and when we've covered those, we turn to more idealistic concerns.  The second pyramid is much more grim; it's the Hierarchy of Horseshit. More specifically, it's taken from Richard Heinberg's book "Peak Everthing" and represents all the faulty assumptions, lies, swindles and unsustainable models that are driving modern capitalism and politics. (see a great talk by him on the subject if you want the book in 20 mins)

 So there you have it.  Unstoppable force meet immovable object.  Somethings' gotta give.  Tomorrow's post on Idiocracy will look at what happens we stay the course.

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