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July 19, 2006

Who Are the People Behind the Avatars?

This report was released a couple of weeks ago by our friends over at Trendwatching.com.  For those of you interested in getting a handle on the upsurge of interest in marketing through virtual worlds and avatars, this is an excellent primer.

Jesse Shannon at Adotas has also published a thoughtful 2 Part Feature on his blog entitled "Marketing's New Manifestation; Why Avatars Best Represent Online User Engagement"

Broad pieces like these, coming on the heels of the recent piece in the Harvard Business Review' entitled "Avatar Based Marketing" are beginning to lay out  the broad landscape of virtual worlds and explain to marketers what the advantages  are to reaching out to consumers in these environments.  What seems clear is that one issue confounding folks is the question of  "Who's the person behind the avatar"?  In other words, one of primary draws for users entering spaces like Second Life or Habbo Hotel is the basic guarantee of anonymity and escapism the spaces provide.  Yet for marketers, knowing who they're reaching is critical.

It seems to me that this is an age old problem that is no easier to answer in conventional media or the web than it is in virtual worlds.  Think about it -- how do advertisers know who's watching the TV shows they advertise on?  They rely on sampling and surveys from companies like AC Nielsen -- the same sort of services will naturally arise for virtual worlds.    The problem is that the immersive interface of a virtual world makes it seem harder to figure out than it needs to be -- the optical illusion is that because a 21 year old woman from Peoria can be roleplaying an old man from New York, that somehow clouds the picture.   

At the end of the day, the truth is that marketers will reach their audiences the same way they always do -- by providing experiences of value to the demographic.  The people they want to reach will flock to these content experiences and they'll bring there friends -- and someday soon the tracking and reporting tools will follow.

July 18, 2006

Play Money by Julian Dibbell to be Released in Second Life

Dibbell_001

July 17, 2006

How Many People Will be in Second Life One Year From Today?

In the process of pitching Second Life to various clients, I decided to answer just this question.  Of course, I don't have a crystal ball, so instead I resorted to using Excel (I think there's a marketing slogan in there somewhere: "The next best thing to a crystal ball: Microsoft Excel".

All jokes aside, I think the results of simply applying a compounded monthly growth rate are surprising (we all know how hard it is to calculate compound interest).  What this shows is that if the current rate of 22% monthly growth continues, we're looking at 3.6 million residents by July 1 2007.  If things slow down and SL grows at just 10% monthly, there will be 936K residents.

If we decide to split the difference, we're still looking at a couple million users a year from now.  Pretty mindblowing.

Slgrowth_1

 

July 12, 2006

Two Videos that Make Me Want to Cry

This video of a chimp that's been taught to play Ms. Pac Man is just sad -- I feel unbelievably sorry for the chimp. 

This video of enormous animatronic puppets created to celebrate the 100th anniversary of Jules Verne's 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea is moving on so many levels; poignant, impressive, humbling and just beautiful.  Enjoy.